SPX Cracks Hard — 10Y at 4.97% Is the Problem
SPX futures down 1.21%, 10Y yield spiking to 4.97%, and Fear & Greed at 23. Here's what I'm watching at the open.
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Live tape — what this brief is about
The 10-year yield hitting 4.970% overnight is what's driving this selloff — not earnings, not macro surprise, just bond market pressure crushing tech multiples. SPX down 1.21% pre-market with Fear & Greed at 23 (Extreme Fear) tells me capitulation energy is building, but we're not there yet.
On my radar
- BHVN $14.69 — RVOL 16.5x, float 151M, catalyst-driven +25%. I want to see it consolidate above $13.50 for 15–20 minutes at the open before I touch it. Too much float for a reckless entry.
- WPRT $2.24 — RVOL 4.1x, float only 19M. This is the cleaner small-float story. $2.10 is my line — hold that and I'm interested on a morning pullback.
- NOK $7.88 — down 14.81% on catalyst, RVOL 2.9x. Short bias if it bounces into $8.20–$8.40 resistance and stalls. Not chasing the gap down.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,580 is my first major support — lose that intraday and I expect a flush toward $7,500.
- 10Y Yield 5.00% is the psychological wall. If we tag it today, growth stocks get another leg down regardless of price action elsewhere.
- Gold $4,000 is the round-number floor I'm defending. A close below it changes my bullion positioning.
- Crude $101.22 holding while energy equities are red is a divergence I'm watching — XLE lagging crude this hard usually resolves upward for energy names.
How I'm positioned
I'm holding my gold position with a stop just below $3,980 — not panicking on a -0.41% overnight move. Bitcoin at $81,639 with Crypto Fear & Greed neutral at 50 while stocks are in Extreme Fear is actually a quiet positive for BTC relative strength.
Day trade sizing is at half normal risk today. When Fear & Greed is at 23 and the 10Y is screaming, you preserve capital first. I'm not adding to any index positions until SPX shows me a hold above $7,580 for at least two consecutive 30-minute candles. First action today: watch WPRT at the open for a $2.10 pullback entry.
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Not financial advice. Do your own research.