SPX -1.09% Pre-Market: 10Y at 5.10% Is the Story
Tech getting crushed pre-market, 10Y yield at 5.10% is the pressure point. Fear & Greed at 27 — here's what I'm watching at the open.
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Live tape — what this brief is about
The 10-year yield hitting 5.102% overnight is the entire narrative this morning. Tech is down -3.02% in the sector, SPX is leaking -1.09% pre-market, and the Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 27 (Fear) — this is not the time to be a hero on the long side.
On my radar
- SITC $3.43 — up +13.95%, RVOL 6.6x, float 52.5M. Cleanest setup on the long side. Watching for a flag above $3.20 post-open before I touch it. Float is manageable.
- TLK $11.03 — down -13.69%, RVOL 5.4x. If it bounces into $11.40–$11.60 on low volume I'm looking at a short back toward $10.50.
- SLS $9.98 — down -11.99%, RVOL 3.6x, catalyst-driven. Below $9.80 and this continues. Watching for a dead-cat to $10.40 to fade.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,600 is the line I'm watching — lose that at the open and I expect a flush toward $7,530.
- 10Y yield 5.10% is already at the level that broke tech in 2023. If it pushes to 5.15% intraday, growth names get hit harder.
- Gold $4,184 holding firm is telling — money is rotating into hard assets, not risk. My bullion thesis stays intact.
- Crude $98.02 with Energy up +2.52% is a rare bright spot but I'm not chasing XLE here.
How I'm positioned
I trimmed half my SPX exposure Friday and I'm not adding back until I see the tape stabilize above $7,600. Gold position is untouched — I'm holding through any dip to $4,120. BTC at $82,479 with Crypto Fear & Greed at 59 (Greed) is a divergence I don't fully trust yet, so I'm keeping crypto sizing flat. Day trade risk today is 50% of normal until SPX picks a direction. First 30 minutes I'm watching, not trading.
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Not financial advice. Do your own research.