SPX Cracks at $7,706 — Crude Surges While Everything Else Bleeds
Risk-off overnight with SPX down 0.75% and utilities getting destroyed. Crude is the only real green on the board and my scanner has two names I'm watching closely into the open.
Live tape — what this brief is about
Everything except energy got hit overnight and the tape this morning is telling a clear story — rotation out of rate-sensitive and consumer names, into crude. The 10Y sitting at 5.114% with zero movement is the wall the market keeps running into, and until that yields (pun intended), I'm not chasing longs on the broad index.
On my radar
- NNBR $3.86 — RVOL 7.0x, float 77.1M, catalyst-driven. This is the cleanest setup from the scan. I want to see it consolidate above $3.70 in the first 15 minutes and build a flag. Entry only on a clean reclaim of $3.90 with volume confirmation. Stop below $3.55.
- MEI $14.83 — RVOL 2.0x, float 35.5M, +11.76% pre-market. Lower RVOL but the float is tight. Watching $14.50 as support — if it holds that level at open I'll look for a continuation push toward $15.50. Small size only.
- EGHT $2.29 — RVOL 3.4x, float 141.8M. Float is too heavy for my taste on a momentum play. Watching from the sidelines unless RVOL spikes above 6x on open.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,650 is the line I'm defending — a clean break below that opens the door to $7,580 fast given the Fear & Greed sitting at 35 (Fear).
- Gold $4,285 is the short-term floor for my bullion thesis. A close below that today changes my posture.
- Crude $95.00 is the next resistance — energy is the only sector with a bid and I'll watch XLE for a tradeable move if crude breaks that level.
- Silver $63.00 breakdown would confirm metals are in real trouble, not just a rotation day.
How I'm positioned
I'm holding my gold position with a stop at $4,270 — not adding here with silver bleeding 1.49%. My BTC long is under pressure at $83,586 but Crypto Fear & Greed at 71 (Greed) while price is down is a divergence I don't love. That tells me retail is still complacent on crypto even as the chart weakens. I'm trimming 20% of my BTC position at open if we don't reclaim $84,500 in the first 30 minutes. No new index exposure today — SPX needs to show me $7,720 holds as support before I add. My only aggressive move today is NNBR if the setup confirms above $3.90.
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