SPX Holds $7,744 but Energy Bleeds and BTC Lags the Rally
Industrials and tech carried the tape while energy and comms got slapped. My scanner flagged STEM and AESI post-move — here's how the day graded out and what I'm stalking tomorrow.
Live tape — what this brief is about
Decent day overall, but the divergences tell a more complicated story. SPX tacked on +0.53% and closed at $7,744.99, industrials led at +0.95%, and tech added +0.86% — but energy dropped -0.89% and comms got hit -0.91% while crude collapsed -2.34% to $92.40. I'll call today a B-minus. The broad tape was constructive but nothing about this felt clean.
On my radar
- STEM $4.51 — up +15.77% on the day, RVOL 4.4x, float only 9M. Missed the initial move. Watching for a flag setup at the open tomorrow if it consolidates above $4.20. Below that and I'm passing.
- AESI $12.47 — +13.51%, RVOL 3.8x, 50 SMA bounce with a catalyst. Float is 124.9M so I'm sizing this differently — need a clean hold above $12.00 before I touch it.
- AIFU $8.61 — down -15.34%, RVOL 2.3x. Short side. If it bounces to $9.00–$9.20 tomorrow and fails, that's my entry.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,700 is now the line that matters — any close below that flips my short-term bias bearish and I start trimming index exposure.
- Gold $4,328 is holding beautifully. Silver outperforming at +1.34% to $64.86 confirms the metals bid is real.
- Crude $92.40 breaking down while nat gas dropped -4.12% to $3.23 — I want nothing to do with energy equities right now.
How I'm positioned
Stock Fear & Greed is at 37 (Fear) while the tape grinds higher — that's actually the setup I like for longs. Crypto Fear & Greed at 71 (Greed) while BTC slips -0.42% is a yellow flag I'm not ignoring. Holding my gold position through any dip to $4,280, no adds until silver confirms above $65. Closed my crude-linked trade at a small loss today — I was wrong, I got out, moving on. Tomorrow I'm watching STEM at the open for a flag-and-go. If the tape gaps up and SPX clears $7,760, I'll add to my industrial ETF position.
Reader takes
0 repliesBe respectful. Slurs and harassment will be removed. Not financial advice.
Get the next brief in your inbox
One email each weekday. Same voice, same format, no spam.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.