Energy Wins, Health Craters, and the 10Y Won't Quit
SPX shed 0.59% as Health led the bloodbath down 2.45% and Financials followed. Energy was the only real winner today — and my positioning reflected that.
Live tape — what this brief is about
Mixed bag Tuesday. The 10Y at 4.806% is doing real damage to rate-sensitive sectors and I don't think it's done. Health down 2.45% and Financials down 1.33% dragged the tape while Energy quietly ran +1.26% — the crude pop to $93.29 (+1.98%) was the story of the session that most people slept on.
On my radar
- SST $5.15 — up 34.36%, RVOL 2.7x, float 10M. Missed the move today. Watching for a morning consolidation above $4.80 before I even consider chasing. High-float exhaustion is a real risk here.
- EAF $6.99 — up 12.74%, RVOL 2.9x, float 26.1M, bouncing the 50 SMA. This is the cleanest setup of the three. $6.60 is my risk line; a hold there tomorrow morning gets my attention.
- BCRX $9.19 — short-side. RVOL 3.0x, broke down hard. If it opens weak and can't reclaim $9.50, I'm looking at continuation toward $8.60.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,600 is the number I'm watching overnight — a gap below that tomorrow would confirm the 10Y is winning this fight.
- Gold $4,412 gave back 1.44% today. I need to see it hold $4,380 or my bullion thesis gets a stress test.
- Crude $93.29 breaking and holding above $94 flips energy equities into a momentum trade I want exposure to.
How I'm positioned
I grade today a C+. I was right on energy, wrong on expecting gold to hold. Fear & Greed sitting at 41 (Fear) while Crypto Greed is at 69 — that divergence is a tell. BTC at $78,327 with that kind of sentiment gap is a fade setup I'm watching but not touching yet.
Holding my crude-linked position overnight. Gold stop moves to $4,375 — if it breaks there at open I'm out, no argument. Tomorrow's first 30 minutes will tell me whether SPX $7,600 matters or if this was just a one-day rotation flush.
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