Risk-Off Friday: Yields Bite, Tech Holds, Metals Get Hit Hard
SPX shed 0.40% but tech was the lone bright spot. Gold and silver both dropped over 1.3% as the 10Y yield pushed to 4.784% — here's how I'm sitting at the close and what I'm targeting Monday.
Live tape — what this brief is about
Red across the board except tech and industrials — the 10Y yield at 4.784% is doing the damage, and today made that crystal clear. Health, consumer, and comms all got hit harder than the headline SPX number suggests. This was a rate-driven selloff, not a panic.
On my radar
- AOUT $14.34 — up 43.26% on RVOL 62.3x with a tiny 12.5M float. This is the kind of name I live for. Didn't qualify on my scanner entries today, which tells me it gapped and ran without a clean setup. Watching for a multi-day flag or a flush to $11.50–$12.00 for a second-day play Monday.
- CURV $2.51 — +12.56% on RVOL 14.8x, but the 99.5M float makes this a harder hold. Only interesting to me if it builds a base above $2.35 over the weekend and opens with continuation.
- PATH $15.25 — down 16.30% on a catalyst. Low RVOL at 1.3x means the selling was real, not just noise. If it gaps down Monday below $14.80, I'm watching for a short entry targeting $13.50.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,650 is the line I'm drawing for Monday — if we open below that, the $7,580 zone becomes the next magnet.
- Gold $4,450 is my bull-thesis floor. A close below that level changes my longer-term posture on bullion.
- 10Y Yield 4.85% — if we breach that next week, financials and REITs get hit again and I'm not touching either sector long.
How I'm positioned
Gold and silver positions are underwater today but I'm not flinching — I'm holding through the yield noise as long as $4,450 holds on a closing basis. My stops are set, not moving them. BTC at $79,686 with Crypto Fear & Greed at 74 (Greed) while the asset is down nearly 2% is a divergence I don't love — crypto traders are complacent here and I trimmed 15% of my BTC position into today's weakness. Day trades were flat — scanner flagged nothing that qualified, AOUT ran without me, and I didn't chase. That's a win, not a loss. Monday I'm coming in early, watching AOUT for a clean flag setup and PATH for a short trigger below $14.80. Cash is a position and I'm comfortable being mostly there into the weekend.
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