COMMS Rips 3.9%, SPX Eyes $7,800 — One Clean Small-Cap Setup
SPX is up 1.49% overnight with COMMS and TECH leading hard. One scanner qualifier today but MX and STKE are worth watching closely into the open.
Live tape — what this brief is about
SPX is ripping overnight and COMMS is the story — +3.9% sector performance tells me this isn't a broad risk-on move, it's a rotation trade with a specific catalyst behind it. The 10Y yield dropping to 4.926% with crude cratering -2.31% is a combination I don't ignore.
On my radar
- MX $3.20 — RVOL 12.5x, float 36.5M, up 16.36% pre-market. This is the cleanest setup on the board. I want to see it hold $3.00 on the open and build a 5-minute flag. Above $3.35 with volume I'm in.
- STKE $1.54 — RVOL 7.0x, float 38.4M, +28.33%. That gap is extended but if it pulls to $1.38–$1.42 and consolidates, I'll watch for a reclaim. Not chasing the open.
- ZTO $19.45 — RVOL 5.4x, down 7.2%. If it can't hold $19.00 at the open, this breaks to $18.40. Short bias below $19.00 with a tight stop at $19.55.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,764 is where we're sitting — the next meaningful resistance I'm watching is $7,800. A clean break and hold above that opens a run toward $7,850. Fail there and I expect a fade back to $7,700.
- Gold $4,376 is consolidating — I need to see it defend $4,340 or my near-term bullish thesis cools.
- Crude $90.24 breaking below $89.50 confirms the energy unwind and I'm staying out of XLE entirely today.
How I'm positioned
Stock Fear & Greed at 34 (Fear) while SPX gaps up nearly 1.5% — that divergence is interesting and it tells me the rally isn't crowded yet, which I actually like for follow-through. Crypto Fear & Greed at 78 (Extreme Greed) while BTC is down 0.69% pre-market is a warning flag; I'm not adding to BTC here.
I'm holding gold through any dip to $4,340 with no adds until it reclaims $4,400. My index exposure stays on — this tape rewards staying long above $7,700 SPX. On the day-trade side I'm sizing MX at half position until the open confirms direction, with a hard stop under $2.95. If SPX opens clean above $7,780 and holds for 15 minutes, I add to my existing index position.
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