SPX Near $7,638 but Fear Index Says Don't Chase — Here's My Line
Tech is ripping +2.25% overnight but the Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 29. I'm not buying the euphoria at these levels — here's exactly where I need to see price hold before I add risk.
Live tape — what this brief is about
Tech is carrying the tape hard this morning — SPX futures up over 1% with tech sector leading at +2.25% — but the CNN Fear & Greed Index at 29 (Fear) while price rips is a disconnect I don't ignore. That divergence tells me this move is short-covering, not conviction buying, and I'm sizing accordingly.
On my radar
- FEAM $2.06 — RVOL 8.8x, float 41.5M, 200 SMA bounce catalyst. Cleanest setup on the board. Want to see it hold $1.95 pre-market and build a base. Trigger above $2.15 with volume confirmation.
- GLOO $4.91 — RVOL 7.6x, float 89.1M, momentum play up 20%+. Float is a little heavy for my taste but the RVOL is real. Watching $4.70 as the line — below that it's a fade, not a follow.
- FLNC $7.66 — down 15.36% on a catalyst, RVOL 5.5x. Short bias. I want a dead-cat bounce into $8.00–$8.20 to get short with a stop above $8.50.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,600 is now the floor I'm watching — lose that intraday and this morning's gap-up is a trap.
- SPX $7,700 is my upside resistance. I'm not adding longs into that number without a clean base.
- Gold $4,408 is holding but not breaking out — needs to clear $4,430 to get me adding to my bullion position.
- 10Y Yield at 4.978% is the real story. Pushing 5% with equities ripping is a compression trade that historically ends badly for growth stocks.
How I'm positioned
Holding my gold and BTC long-term positions — not touching either today. BTC at $77,977 with Crypto Fear & Greed at 56 (Greed) is a fine place to sit tight, no adds needed. My SPX index position is at half size until we either hold $7,600 cleanly through the first hour or break toward $7,700 with volume. Day trade risk is capped at 50% of my normal size — the yield picture near 5% and that Fear & Greed divergence are both telling me to stay disciplined. First hour I'm watching FEAM for the 200 SMA confirmation trade. If it triggers clean above $2.15, I'm in with a stop at $1.94.
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