10Y Yield Knocking on 5% While Tech Gets Crushed Pre-Market
The 10-year is one tick from 5% and tech is down nearly 2% overnight — this is not a dip-buying morning. Here's what I'm watching and how I'm sizing.
Live tape — what this brief is about
The 10-year yield at 4.996% is the only number that matters this morning. We're one basis point from 5%, and the market knows it — tech down -1.81%, utilities down -1.34%, and the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 30 (Fear). The one bright spot is COMMS at +2.19%, which is where I'm looking for relative strength plays. Crude pushing +1.40% to $102.81 while energy equities are still down is a disconnect I'm watching closely.
On my radar
- RUM $8.00 — RVOL 7.5x, float 399.4M, catalyst-driven. Big float makes this a slower mover but the RVOL is real. Want to see it hold $7.75 on the open and consolidate before any entry. Not chasing the gap.
- ALLT $8.38 — RVOL 7.8x, float only 48.9M, bouncing off the 200 SMA. This is the cleaner setup. $8.10 holds and I'm interested for a push toward $9.00. Tighter float means faster moves both ways.
- NSLR $7.86 — RVOL 28.7x short side, down -18.21%. That's a massive flush. I don't short into the hole — I'm watching for a dead-cat bounce into $8.40–$8.60 as a short re-entry zone if the broader tape stays weak.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,550 is my first line — below that I expect an acceleration toward $7,490 and I'm not holding longs through it.
- 10Y Yield 5.00% is the psychological trigger. A clean close above that number today and I'm cutting equity exposure by 20%.
- Gold $4,300 is the floor I'm defending in my bullion position. A break below and I reassess the near-term thesis.
- Crude $103 breaking higher with energy equities still red is a divergence — XLE is lagging and I'm not chasing oil names today.
How I'm positioned
I'm going into the open defensive. My SPX index exposure is at 60% of normal size with a hard stop below $7,550. Gold position is full, stop at $4,300, no adds today. BTC at $77,099 with Crypto Fear & Greed at 69 (Greed) while the stock Fear & Greed is at 30 — that divergence usually closes in one direction and it's rarely crypto's favor when rates spike. I trimmed 15% of my BTC position yesterday and I'm holding that cash.
For day trades, I'm focused on ALLT long above $8.10 with a stop at $7.90 and a target of $9.00. Half size only — this tape doesn't reward aggression. If the 10-year prints 5.00% in the first hour, I'm moving to cash on everything short-term and letting it breathe.
Reader takes
0 repliesBe respectful. Slurs and harassment will be removed. Not financial advice.
Get the next brief in your inbox
One email each weekday. Same voice, same format, no spam.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.