Tech Dumps, Energy Rips — SPX $7,600 Is the Line Today
SPX futures are sliding into the open with tech leading the bleed. Fear & Greed at 31 and 10Y yields holding near 4.78% — I'm playing defense until the tape shows me otherwise.
Live tape — what this brief is about
Overnight selling hit risk assets across the board — tech off 1.5%, consumer down 1.7%, and SPX threatening to break below levels I've been watching all week. Energy is the lone bright spot and that's not an accident with crude holding $89.
On my radar
- GPRO $1.23 — RVOL 17.7x, float 173M, catalyst-driven. This is the cleanest long setup on the scanner. I want to see it consolidate above $1.15 in the first 15 minutes and flag before I touch it. A flush to $1.10 with a reversal candle is also playable.
- FRVO $19.75 — RVOL 8.8x, float 294.6M. Float is too heavy for my ideal setup but the catalyst + momentum tag earns a watch. $18.50 is my line — below that and I'm ignoring it entirely.
- CMTG $1.47 — RVOL 4.9x, no catalyst, just bleeding. Short only if it loses $1.40 with volume confirmation. Small size given the price.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,600 is the number — lose that intraday and I expect a flush toward $7,540.
- Gold $4,350 is my short-term support — I'm not adding below that level until it stabilizes.
- Crude $89 holding while energy equities rip tells me XLE has legs, but I'm not chasing at the open.
- 10Y at 4.778% with the dollar firm is the headwind for tech — this setup doesn't reverse in a day.
How I'm positioned
Fear & Greed at 31 (Fear) while crypto greed sits at 63 — that divergence is interesting but not actionable yet. BTC at $76,600 isn't breaking anything meaningful for me; I'm holding my core position and not adding. Gold I'm holding through this dip — $4,350 is where I reassess, not before. Day trade sizing is at 60% of normal today. The tape is ugly pre-market and I'm not a hero. If SPX opens below $7,600 and doesn't reclaim it in the first 30 minutes, I'm sitting mostly in cash waiting for a real setup. GPRO is the only long I'll consider before 10 AM.
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