Energy Rips, SPX Slips, and PSQL Nearly Doubled — August Closes Flat
August 31st wrapped with a split tape: energy surged 2.17% on crude's 3% spike while industrials and comms bled. PSQL was the day's standout at +95%, and the 10Y yield creeping to 4.758% is the number I'm carrying into September.
Live tape — what this brief is about
August goes out with a whimper on the index level but a lot of action underneath the hood. SPX shed 0.23% but the real story was crude oil ripping 3% and dragging energy up 2.17% while everything rate-sensitive — utilities, REITs, industrials — got sold. The 10Y at 4.758% is doing real damage and I don't think the market has fully priced that in yet.
On my radar
- PSQL $19.11 — +95.2%, RVOL 14.8x. Float unknown which makes it dangerous, but a name that nearly doubles deserves a morning watch. If it opens above $17.50 and holds, I'm looking for the continuation scalp, tight stop.
- SST $2.27 — RVOL 19.9x, float 10M, catalyst-driven. This is the cleaner setup. A gap-and-go above $2.40 tomorrow with volume confirmation gets my attention. Float this small can move fast both ways.
- PCG $13.29 — down 25.96%, RVOL 5.7x, catalyst. I'm watching for a dead-cat rejection off $14.00 tomorrow. Utilities were already the worst sector today; PCG layering a company-specific hit on top makes it a short candidate if it bounces weak.
Levels I care about
- SPX $7,650 is my line — if we open below that and don't reclaim it fast, I think September opens with a flush toward $7,580.
- 10Y yield 4.80% is the threshold that breaks the equity bid. We're 4 basis points away. I'm watching this more than the index right now.
- Crude $88 is the next resistance level — if it clears that, energy keeps running and inflation expectations reprice fast.
- Gold $4,480 — today's pullback stopped here intraday. That's my line in the sand for my bullion position.
How I'm positioned
Today was a B- on execution. I caught the energy move early through a crude-linked name but sized too small — left real money on the table. My gold position is sitting on unrealized gains but today's -0.72% dip on a rising yield environment is a yellow flag, not a red one. I'm not cutting it. BTC at $78,944 with Crypto Fear & Greed at 62 is telling me crypto wants to go higher — I added a small BTC position into the close.
SPX scanner showed 0 qualifiers out of 383 tickers scanned today. That tells me the tape is selective. Tomorrow I'm focused on PSQL and SST at the open, and I'll be watching the 9:45 candle before touching either. If the 10Y opens above 4.77%, I'm cutting index exposure and sitting mostly in cash until a level breaks cleanly.
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