Gold +2.77%, silver +4.63%, crude -9.52% overnight. The commodity split is violent and it's creating real setups heading into the open.
Overnight handed us one of the cleaner divergence trades I've seen in months — precious metals are screaming while crude is getting absolutely obliterated. SPX futures are green, the dollar is soft, and yields are easing. This tape has a risk-on flavor with a flight-to-safety undercurrent, which tells me something is quietly off beneath the surface even with Fear & Greed sitting at 67 (Greed).
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I'm long gold and silver through physical and futures exposure — I'm holding both through this move and not adding at these levels. My stop on the bullion trade is a daily close below $4,580 on gold. BTC at $82,331 with Crypto Fear & Greed at 46 (Fear) is not a setup I'm adding to yet — I want to see it clear $85,000 before I size up. Day trades today are sized at 75% of normal risk given the pre-market volatility. First action at the open: I'm watching IART's first 5-minute candle — a hold above $12.75 and I'm in.