· cpi · macro · fed
CPI week: what I'm watching and what I'm ignoring
Headline inflation prints Thursday. Here's the 60-second version of what moves and what doesn't.
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Mario's take
Core services ex-housing is the only line that matters to the Fed's reaction function right now. Headline will make the news, core will make the tape. I don't trade the print — I trade the reaction to the reaction, usually the next day.
What I'm watching
- Core services ex-housing — the Fed's pet metric. Anything above 0.4% MoM and the cut narrative gets pushed back.
- Dollar tape after the print — if DXY fades on a hot number, that's the tell that the bond market doesn't believe it.
- 2Y yield reaction — short end is where the policy bet lives. Watch the 60-minute follow-through, not the first 5 minutes.
- Russell 2000 vs Nasdaq — small caps tell you what the market thinks about real rates. If IWM holds while QQQ sells, the print was rate-friendly.
What I'm ignoring
- The headline number on its own.
- Anything anyone says in the first 30 minutes after the release.
- Hot takes built around the supercore subcomponent of the supercore subcomponent. If you have to dig three layers deep to find your narrative, you don't have one.
I'm flat into the print and sized small for the next day. The trade is in the reaction, not the data.
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Not financial advice. Do your own research.